Putting a Prize at the End of the Race to Net Zero

As of mid-2024, 107 countries—responsible for approximately 82% of global greenhouse gas emissions—have pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Those commitments are impressive, but achieving net zero has proved far harder. By 2030, global carbon emissions are expected to be reduced by 2.4% from 2019 levels, and only a handful of countries are on track to meet their net-zero targets 25 years from now.

Bhutan, Madagascar, Panama, and Suriname are the only countries that have already done so. Together they offer a powerful model for what can be achieved with decisive action.

Last month at COP29 in Baku, these countries launched the G-Zero, a promising informal international organization of countries that have achieved net zero. Their ambition is to expand the circle of net-zero countries more quickly by sharing best practices and rewarding early achievers. 

In a November joint statement, heads of state from these four countries wrote: “G-Zero Nations have set the standard for what true climate leadership looks like. We stand as living proof that net-zero emissions are attainable, even for nations with limited resources.” They called for the rest of the world to rise to the occasion and match their ambition.

Unlikely, But Committed Partners

At first glance, Bhutan, Madagascar, Panama, and Suriname seem odd partners. They are located in different corners of the world, on different continents. And they are small. Together, their combined GDP of $106.09 billion represents just 0.1% of the world’s GDP, and their collective population of 36.21 million accounts for less than half a percent of the global population.

Yet each has successfully achieved net-zero emissions. Admittedly, all benefit from natural resources that provide abundant carbon sinks (i.e., forests) or emissions-free power (i.e., hydro). But each has worked diligently to expedite their goals. For example, Bhutan has invested significantly in its hydroelectric infrastructure and has taken extraordinary measures to protect its carbon-absorbing forests. Panama and Suriname, too, have worked to preserve their vast rainforests. Madagascar has invested in hydropower, developing projects like Volobe and Sahofika.

These countries show how wise use and investment in natural resources coupled with careful development policies can make net zero a reality. The next step is to scale these efforts for larger and more complex economies, including those without abundant natural resources.

From Theory to Practice

The G-Zero puts into practice key theoretical lessons from the study of international organizations. Like the “climate clubs” advocated by economist William Nordhaus, the G-Zero offers benefits to states that meet the criteria for inclusion—in this case carbon neutrality. It also puts into practice Abram and Antonia Chayes insight that participation in international institutions must be earned.

By achieving net zero early, these four countries—and hopefully others that follow—earn the right to participate in the G-Zero regime and reap the benefits. To date, those benefits are quite limited: a free cup of coffee at a reception in Baku. But benefits can, and must, increase over time.

The Case for Prize Money

New and additional climate finance should be made available for countries that achieve net zero—not just pledge to get there. At COP29, national leaders agreed on the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance, which requires developed nations to “take the lead” and contribute $300 billion a year by 2035. A small, but meaningful, portion of those new funds should be exclusively available to countries that have already achieved net zero. 

Current climate funding mechanisms often tie eligibility to specific statuses, risk profiles, or geographies. For example, the Loss and Damage Fund focuses on developing countries particularly vulnerable to climate change, assisting them in losses from extreme weather events and slow-onset changes. Similarly, the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility are geared toward supporting climate projects in developing countries.

What better way to earn access to special financing opportunities than to actually meet the goal of carbon neutrality? It might seem counterintuitive to offer special funding to countries that have already reached carbon neutrality. Yet, it is often least developed states that are best placed to reach net zero quickly. Such states have the dual burden of advancing their own sustainable development while remaining carbon neutral.

Bhutan, which just graduated out of the Least Developed Country grouping in 2023, needs investment in its hydroelectric infrastructure as its own energy demands increase, and as it seeks to expand its supply of hydro power to its neighbors. Mozambique, another LDC, requires investment in wind and solar energy and carbon market participation to balance sustainable development with mitigation efforts, given its vulnerability to climate disasters and reliance on fossil fuels.

Moreover, even as G-Zero members have benefited from natural resources, they are often uniquely exposed to climate risks. Madagascar, as an island nation, is highly susceptible to rising sea levels. Bhutan, with its fragile mountain ecosystem, faces the risk of devastating impacts from even small changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. These countries critically require $215 billion to $387 billion per year in adaptation finance. The G-Zero must become a pathway to access those resources.

Expanding the Club

Ultimately, the G-Zero must expand from 4 to 197—the number of states signed onto the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Finland, Equatorial Guinea, Sweden, and Norway, among others, are getting close or at least are on track to achieve net zero well in advance of 2050.

Yet, many of the 100+ countries that have committed to net zero by 2050 may perceive a false choice between their own economic development and their net-zero ambitions. The greater the benefits of membership in the G-Zero, the more likely countries will be to actually reach their net-zero pledges.

When the G-Zero convenes at COP30 in Brazil next year, its secretariat will oversee the creation of a plan of action moving forward. That plan should focus on three things:

• Develop robust means of sharing best practices for sustainable development consistent with actual carbon neutrality.
• Advocate in every available international platform for preferential climate finance earmarked for net-zero countries.
• Work with nations nearing net zero to accelerate their progress. 

It’s time to create “a true race to zero” by giving countries a reason to get there “early.” There must be a prize at the end of the race. G-Zero membership can become that prize.