One Bad Backward Bill Will Hurt the Nation

The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” now in the U.S. Senate is anything but. At least eight groups have analyzed the impacts of its all-but-certain elimination of support for clean energy, finding that it will raise the cost of electricity, reduce economic growth, and wipe out hundreds of thousands of jobs—to say nothing of increasing GHG emissions.

I’ll summarize the grim economic conclusions of each analysis.

Aurora Energy Research: 

• Increase household electricity bills by 10%, and up to 22% in some states
• $336 billion less investment in clean energy infrastructure
• 237 GW reduction in clean energy generation capacity
• At least 97,000 fewer energy-related jobs

Resources for the Future:

• Increase average electricity rates by 5–7% in 2030, and 6–10% in 2035
• Increase average annual electricity bills by $75–$100 in 2030, and $100–$160 per year in 2035
• Reduce wind generation capacity in 2035 by 125–225 GW and solar capacity in 2035 by 175 GW

 National Economic Research Associates:

• Increase average residential electricity prices by 6.7% in 2026 and 7.3% in 2029
• Increase average commercial and industrial electricity prices by 9.7% in 2026 and 10.6% in 2029
• Decrease new generation capacity by 167 GW

Solar Energy Industries Association

• 150 GW of capacity shortage by 2030
• Reduce energy infrastructure investment by $220-$285 billion by 2030
• 330,000 solar-related jobs lost (6,400 of them in Pennsylvania) by 2028
• 331 factories closed or cancelled
• $286 billion in local solar investments erased

Brattle Group

• $51 billion in additional annual electricity costs in 2035
• 8 million jobs-years lost through 2035
• 50% lower solar and wind investment through 2035, with some decrease in storage
• With limited new gas-fired generation available until the early 2030s, a potential power supply shortfall is possible
• $820 billion reduction in GDP through 2035

Princeton University

• Increase household and business energy expenditures by $25 billion annually in 2030 and over $50 billion in 2035
• Increase average household energy costs by $100-$160 per year in 2030 and $270-$415 per year in 2035
• Reduce investment in U.S. clean energy production by $1 trillion from 2025-2035
• Imperil $522 billion in announced investments in clean energy supply and manufacturing
• Reduce sales of electric vehicles by 40% in 2030 and end America’s battery manufacturing boom
• Substantially slow electricity capacity additions, raising national electricity rates and monthly household electricity bills by 9% in 2030—and as much as 17% in some states (including Texas, Oklahoma, and Pennsylvania) 
• “Kill off” the clean hydrogen, CO₂ management, and nuclear power sectors

Energy Innovation Policy & Technology

• Increase annual energy bills for American households by $170 billion between 2025-2034
• Loss of 840,000 jobs in 2030 and another 790,000 jobs by 2035
• Decrease U.S. GDP by $1.1 trillion between 2025-2034
• Decrease electricity capacity additions by 120 GW by 2030 and 330 GW by 2035

Energy Innovation finds that the impacts on Pennsylvania include:

• Loss of $4.8 billion of investment across 109 energy and manufacturing facilities
• Increase annual energy bills by $1 billion across Pennsylvania households annually in 2030, and more than $2 billion by 2035, totaling $9.3 billion from 2025 to 2034
• Increase household energy bills by $190 per year in 2030 and more than $360 per year in 2035
• 3% increase in electricity prices and 5.5% increase in natural gas prices for industrial producers
• Loss of 23,000 jobs in 2030 and 37,000 jobs by 2035
• Annual GDP decreases by $3.6 billion in 2030, $6.3 billion in 2035, and $31 billion between 2025-2034
• “Dramatically” slowed deployment of new electricity-generating capacity at a time of rapidly growing demand
• Increase gasoline prices by $0.29 per gallon (about 9.4%)

Coming on top of actions to prop up expensive, unneeded coal plants, plans to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions limits for power plants and allow increased emissions of mercury and other toxins, and making coal ash great again, the cartoon villainy that substitutes for energy policy in the U.S. could not be more backward, costly, or harmful.

Though yet another Pennsylvania legislator wants to try.

John Quigley

Senior Fellow

John Quigley is a senior fellow at the Kleinman Center and previously served on the Center’s Advisory Board. He served as Secretary of the PA Department of Environmental Protection and of the PA Department of Conservation and Natural Resources.