Boomtowns in the Battery Belt: Risks and Opportunities of Clean Energy Investments in Small Towns of America

For most Americans, the term “boomtown” evokes images of mid-19^th century mining settlements—places that transformed practically overnight due to influx of people, capital, and new infrastructure demands. Boomtowns have appeared in many forms since the gold rush, including coal and oil towns of the 20^th century, and more recently as shale and hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) communities. Most recently, investments from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) are precipitating manufacturing boomtowns across the United States, and particularly in the Southeast.

In all these cases, boomtowns must manage the unprecedented need for local growth in infrastructure due to increased economic opportunities. For some, the scale and speed of this growth can lead to unclear planning process differences in benefit and burden accrual between existing residents and new ones. Such disparities can cause strained relations between the two groups. Boomtown developments can also put new pressures on the local housing stock and infrastructure that affects the communities quality of life (Jacquet and Kay 2014; Kinchy et al. 2014; Anderson and Theodori 2009). 

With extractive boomtowns of the past, some form of shock, such as a discovery of confirmation of reserves, a technological advancement, or an economic event typically drives economic activity (Kinchy et al. 2014). As a classic example, the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo and 1979 Iranian revolution caused skyrocketing oil prices and energy crises, inspiring energy-focused policy responses and inducing booms across the American Intermountain West (Kinchy et al. 2014; Jacquet and Kay 2014).

Further, this economic activity is often finite; critical mineral or fossil fuel deposits will eventually diminish, and before that point, ongoing extraction becomes more expensive. The magnitude, duration, and frequency of these cycles combined with the uncertainty of when economic conditions change obviously complicates planning efforts to accommodate supporting labor, infrastructure, or services for boomtown communities.

In this digest, we explore the opportunities and challenges associated with local growth due to investments in the nation’s energy transition, specifically focusing on two communities that were marked for battery and electric vehicle investments from the IRA in the “battery belt” of the United States. Such investments have the potential to produce boomtown-level growth and change.

Signed into law in 2022, the IRA included the largest investment in clean energy in U.S. history, pouring billions of dollars into technology and large-scale place-based investments (i.e., megasites) in partnership with private industry. IRA tax incentives have channeled clean energy industry investment into rural areas, positioning small towns to experience significant growth (The White House 2024).

Although the federal government has scaled back some of these policies and investments after the change in administration, this massive, government-led industrial development may have profound long-term effects on local communities.

There is reason to believe that IRA boomtowns will differ in some ways from extractive boomtowns. First, IRA boomtowns are a product of targeted federal industrial policy rather than sudden discovery, which generates favorable economic conditions and a longer time horizon for planning. Although these boomtowns also rely on a combination of private, federal, and state sources, which introduces political uncertainty when these agendas do not align. Second, while labor, land, and infrastructure influence the emergence of all types of boomtowns, IRA boomtowns are not tied to fixed resource deposits and can emerge wherever land, labor, and infrastructure needs are met.

These key features establish a context where pro-active planning that supports economic growth from the infusion of resources is possible. As a result, there is an opportunity to evaluate the factors that lead to the establishment of IRA boomtowns, and how these places responded to those investment decisions to help communities better plan for rapid investments.

To do so, this policy digest examines two such emerging IRA boomtown communities located in the U.S. Southeast: Liberty, North Carolina; and Stanton, Tennessee. Both towns are undergoing significant change due to the announcement of large-scale electric vehicle and battery manufacturing facilities—Toyota’s battery plant near Liberty, North Carolina (TBMNC), and BlueOval City, Ford’s electric vehicle and battery campus in Stanton, Tennessee.

This policy digest reviews the structure of clean energy provisions within the IRA and state-led megasite development, examines early signs of boomtown dynamics in these two selected towns, and identifies key material factors shaping their trajectories. It concludes by outlining preliminary policy implications for local governments, developers, and federal actors.

IRA Background

The clean energy provisions of the IRA sought to accelerate the deployment of affordable energy sources, build domestic supply chains, and address climate resilience at a national scale. They were also intended to create new jobs and channel investment into communities that had struggled to attract capital for decades (U.S. Treasury 2023). To achieve this, the IRA employed a place-based development strategy, directing greater federal support to disadvantaged areas as demarcated by the Justice40 Initiative (Gunn and Ringness 2024).

Prior to 2025, when the Trump administration and Republican-controlled Congress rolled back some provisions of the IRA, federal funding associated with the IRA was uncapped over the lifetime of bill (Ford 2025; Badlam et al. 2022). Federal funding was expected to total $400 billion in the form of loans, grants, and tax incentives appropriated through 2035 (Badlam et al. 2022). Corporations were the biggest recipient of IRA funding, expecting to receive an estimated $216 billion in tax credits (Badlam et al. 2022).

The IRA mobilized at least $130 billion of private sector investment in clean energy projects prior to credit rollbacks in 2025 (E2 2025). We show the breakdown of private investment by project type in Figure 1. This figure reveals that the majority of investments, at over 75 percent, went toward electric vehicle and battery manufacturing.

Through the IRA, the federal government incentivized private and public investments to be directed to communities with lower incomes, lower college graduation rates, and lower employment rates (U.S. Treasury 2023). Investment sites were also often in areas with favorable access to land, water, and logistical networks, such as railroad and interstate highway networks, that make them attractive for large-scale industrial development.

In Figure 2, we display projections of population growth due to IRA investments in all clean energy projects, where the size of the circle represents larger projected growth relative to baseline population estimates from 2020. This figure not only reveals the significant IRA-induced investment in the battery belt, but it also gives a sense of which communities are poised to be modern boomtowns.

Liberty and Stanton

In 2021, Toyota and Ford selected Liberty and Stanton, respectively, as the locations for new major clean energy manufacturing projects and other associated development. Both towns are small, rural, and were facing long-standing economic decline due to the collapse of traditional manufacturing sectors in the late 20th century (Dolder 2024; Smith 2024).

Liberty sits in a largely agrarian county with the highest concentration of farmland in North Carolina (North Carolina County Commissioners 2024). Stanton is also rural, with students traveling upwards of 45 minutes to school (Smith 2023). We provide basic statistics about both locations in Table 1 and factors that led to their respective selections in the following sections.

In both cases, site development began over a decade before the passage of the IRA, when state governments began investing in their respective “megasites,” or large-scale industrial sites prepared for potential manufacturing companies or investments (Dolder 2024; Capps 2020) When sites previously lost bids for automakers, the states responded with additional investments (Norman 2024; Capps 2020).

Automakers that passed on the sites informed officials of shortcomings in site design, which persuaded respective state governments to invest in infrastructure improvements, including rail, road, sewer, water, and power access (Byrd 2023; Capps 2020). These improvement efforts paid off in the second half of 2021 when Toyota selected Liberty’s Greensboro-Randolph Megasite for its first North American Battery plant and Ford and SK Group announced the BlueOval City campus in Stanton (Ford Motor Company 2021; Toyota 2021).

Within two weeks of the passage of the IRA in August 2022, Toyota increased investment in the Liberty plant from $1 billion to $3.5 billion (Toyota 2022). Fifteen months later, Toyota committed a further $8 billion to the project (Toyota 2023).

Toyota, along with U.S. automobile manufacturers, including Ford, was involved in advocacy efforts related to the legislation and its precursor, the Build Back Better Act (Barra et al. 2022). While Toyota’s increased investment in its North Carolina plant did not directly result from a Department of Energy (DOE) loan linked to the IRA, the producer-friendly tax environment established by the legislation IRA may have influenced total plant investment.

Ford received a $9.2 billion loan from the DOE in 2023 toward the construction of three battery plants, including BlueOval City Tennessee. The loan included stipulations linked to the IRA (BlueOval SK 2023). Moreover, Ford was involved prominently in lobbying efforts, as CEO Jim Farley met President Biden at the White House prior to passage of the IRA and subsequently called the battery and tax credit provisions “mission critical” for the EV industry (Shepardson 2022; Sozzi 2022).

TBMNC began production in April 2025. BlueOval City was expected to begin battery production in late 2025 but has delayed mass production of its next-generation electric pick up until 2028 (Toyota 2025; Stephenson 2025). Figure 3 summarizes key dates relating to the facilities.

The development of the factories in Liberty and Stanton established an expectation for growth among planners and government officials. Stanton’s population is forecast to increase from 417 residents in 2020 to more than 10,000 by 2035 (Gresham Smith et al., 2022). Haywood County, once expected to lose 10 percent of its population by 2035, is now projected to grow by 36 percent (Gresham Smith et al., 2022). In Liberty, the town manager has suggested that its population of 2,600 “may become 5,000, may become 10,000 in the next 5 to 10 years” (McNeill, 2024).

City and local officials are also taking steps to prepare for growth. For example, Liberty’s three-staff Manager’s office updated its land use plan for the first time since the 1990s and is exploring state-subsidized efforts to expand its wastewater treatment system (McNeill, 2024). Similarly, BlueOval City prompted Stanton to develop and adopt a new Master Plan, which they constructed with the help of West Tennessee Planning.

Risks and Opportunities for IRA Boomtowns

As host communities of these clean energy projects undergo a “boom,” they are likely to experience benefits to economic development and community wellbeing but could also be exposed to strains or risks (Kinchy et al. 2014; Jacquet and Kay, 2014). The full impact of these developments will unfold over years or decades. Pulling from the supporting boomtown literature, we outline key considerations for these factors in Table 2.

Policy Recommendations for Managing Growth Under Uncertainty

The trajectories of IRA investments remain highly susceptible to change. Recent policy changes such as the sunsetting of consumer tax credits for electric vehicles and rollback of the $5 billion National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program highlight how political forces significantly influence the success of manufacturing initiatives and broader-based economic development in IRA boomtowns (Ford 2025; Pontecorvo 2025).

The unpredictability facing boomtowns results from mismatch between short-term political timelines and the long-term nature of industrial and civic development. Federal policy can abruptly prioritize—or deprioritize—corporate and public initiatives that require years to come to fruition.

As an example, both TBMNC and BlueOval City both took over 12 years to move from initial megasite development to production and will require significantly longer to scale to capacity (Dolder 2024). This period has seen drastic changes in electric vehicle technology, economic headwinds, and seismic shifts in the political alignments of the federal, North Carolina, and Tennessee governments.

Given the many potential challenges and opportunities, all set under conditions of market and regulatory uncertainty, here we draw on existing insights on actions of corporate and government stakeholders that could help them manage and grow these projects.

Developing Long-Term Revenue Stability

As IRA investments continue to develop, local governments are developing fiscal tools to manage growth and ensure revenue stability. One such tool is payment in lieu of tax (PILOT) agreements, which provide local governments with clear, scheduled revenue streams.

For example, in Randolph County, Toyota’s agreement rebates 60–70% of its annual property taxes depending on development goals, while in Haywood County, a 30-year PILOT agreement valued at $269 million generates revenues equal to 47% of the expected full rate based on the average PILOT rate in the state (Buckshon 2021; Stephenson 2024; Carpenter et al. 2018).

Although these agreements reduce the overall taxable value of new industry, they are widely viewed as the cost of doing business and lock in long-term returns, thereby avoiding fluctuations—potentially ruinous in nature—in revenues. For communities, these PILOTS may not allow them to see the full local revenue associated with growth but are often better than a counterfactual of even fewer dollars being committed toward local needs.

In the future, policymakers could manage and deploy industrial revenues sustainably to protect long-term obligations and support continued growth. Instead of using revenues to fund permanent tax cuts or lock communities into costly infrastructure obligations, governments can direct funds toward priorities such as education, workforce development, and environmental protections (Kelsey et al. 2016). This “pay-as-you-go” approach strengthens key drivers of the economy beyond the life of a single industrial project and help ensure long-term benefits.

Ensuring Investment in Community Needs

Engaging with local community members can ensure that the clean energy industry has lasting benefits for the broader region. For example, Ford’s BlueOval project in Stanton was subject to federal requirements because the site qualified as a “disadvantaged community” under the Justice40 Initiative. To secure a DOE loan, Ford submitted a binding Community Benefits Plan that outlined investments in workforce development, community infrastructure, and social services intended to distribute benefits more broadly across the region (Gunn and Ringness 2024; Ford Good Neighbor Plan 2025).

We are not suggesting the efforts here are an ideal form of community engagement, nor that community benefits plans are the ideal policy tool. The point, though, is that creating some requirements to engage communities, as well as some obligation to make commitment to them, can be an important planning tool.

For example, Tennessee’s $900 million incentive package supporting Ford’s BlueOval City includes performance requirements and “clawback” provisions that obligate repayment if job creation targets are not met (Stephenson 2024). This stipulation protects community interests while reducing public contributions if the project’s goals are not met.

These examples highlight how regulating corporate contributions to the community can alleviate the strains on municipalities that prevent them from benefitting from IRA investments.

Managing Infrastructure Strain

As IRA investments facilitate industrial and other economic development, recipient communities must expand schools, roads, housing, and other infrastructure. These projects often require substantial borrowing, leaving communities vulnerable to long-term debt obligations if projected revenues fall short.

As one 1984 study noted: within a decade of experiencing a “boom,” three coal boomtowns in Utah—Huntington, Ferron, and Roosevelt—all had “bonded indebtedness in excess of the state’s legal limit in spite of intergovernmental aid and considerable contributions from the industrial developers” (Kiefer and Miller 1984, p. 358). This study emphasizes the need to monitor how revenues are spent to maintain fiscal sustainability during growth periods.

Boomtown growth also places strain on facilities and services from wastewater systems to hospital beds and local roads. Existing scholarship on resource boomtowns shows that these pressures can strain community resources and overwhelm socio-cultural and institutional systems, leading to gaps in service that are often blamed on newcomers (Cummings and Schultze 1978; Anderson and Theodori 2009; Huynh et al. 2019).

Policymakers and community leaders should track these strains and adapt planning, budgeting, and staffing accordingly. To further support local governments in the future, state and federal actors can contribute further financial and programmatic support, while encouraging regional and other coordination across grant recipients to help plan and manage these challenges together.

Conclusion

The IRA represents an unprecedented effort to stimulate clean energy manufacturing and revitalize economically distressed regions. However, as we presented in this digest, these investments bring both opportunities and risks for small towns.

To avoid repeating the mistakes of past boomtowns, federal, state, and local actors can treat industrial investment as a foundation for long-term regional development. This means designing incentives that reward adaptability and investing in community services. In planning for volatility, policymakers and corporate leaders can ensure that boomtowns, including modern IRA boomtowns, become resilient and prosperous communities.

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