Oil Sanctions and Dark Shipping
This project will examine the rise of dark shipping—oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection—amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, the project will track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect unauthorized ship-to-ship transfers. From 2017 to 2023, it is estimated that dark ships transported 7.8 million metric tons of crude oil monthly, representing 43% of global seaborne crude exports, with China absorbing 15%. These sanctioned flows appear to offset recorded declines in global oil exports while generating distinct economic shifts. The United States, as a net oil exporter, may experience lower oil prices but benefit from cheaper Chinese imports, driving deflationary growth. The European Union, as a net importer, is likely to face rising energy costs while gaining from Chinese demand, fueling inflationary expansion. China, by leveraging discounted oil, could boost industrial output and propagate global economic shocks. The project aims to reveal dark shipping’s central role in reshaping oil markets and macroeconomic dynamics.
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Howard Marks Presidential Professor of EconomicsJesús Fernández-Villaverde is the Howard Marks Presidential Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania. He serves as director of the Penn Initiative for the Study of the Markets at Penn.
