Energy Economics and Finance Seminar
Event Summary
The seminar series in Energy Economics & Finance (EEF) is jointly organized by Wharton’s Business Economics and Public Policy Department, the Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, and Wharton’s Business, Climate and Environment Lab. The scope of the seminar includes regulation and policy papers. The scope of the seminar also includes environmental and transportation issues, as long as there is a connection with energy. Sessions are biweekly on Mondays from 3:30 p.m. – 4:30 p.m.
Snacks, beer, and wine will be served after the seminar!
For Spring 2026, the seminar will be held in-person in the Kleinman Center Classroom (Fisher Fine Arts Building Room 306).
Find and add a Google Calendar version of the schedule on the BEPP seminar page.
To sign up for the seminar, please send your name, email, and affiliation to Dhivya Kaushik: dhivya@wharton.upenn.edu
Title: “Fatal Errors: The Mortality Value of Accurate Weather Forecasts”
Abstract: We estimate the lives saved by, and willingness to pay for, routine weather forecasts, focusing on how people use forecasts to avoid mortality from heat and cold. Theoretically, more accurate forecasts reduce mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of mortality events and weather forecasts for the twelve-year period from 2005 to 2017 in the U.S. Results show that erroneously mild forecasts increase mortality whereas erroneously extreme forecasts do not reduce mortality. Forecast accuracy improvements over the last two decades have saved tens of thousands of lives, mostly from reduced mortality from heat exposure. Novel theory allows us to derive the willingness to pay for forecast improvements by comparing the effect on mortality of forecasts versus realized temperature. We estimate that the public was willing to pay $22 billion for the improvements in forecasts that occurred during our sample period.
Jeff Shrader
Assistant Professor of International and Public AffairsJeff Shrader is an assistant professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. His research areas include environmental and labor economics.
Spring Seminar Dates:
- 2/2: Paulina Oliva (USC)
- 3/23: Charles Taylor (Harvard Kennedy School)
- 4/6: Aymeric Bellon (UNC)
- 4/20: Jeff Shrader (Columbia University)
- 4/27: Teevrat Garg (UC San Diego)
